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News Release:

June 19, 2008

‘Feel-good’ economy making comeback in Alberta, Business Sentiments Index shows

Edmonton, Alberta – Optimism is on the rise in Alberta’s business world, according to new data released today by ATB Financial and the Western Centre for Economic Research.

The ATB Financial Business Sentiments Index™ surveys more than 400 companies throughout the province to gauge their opinion and sentiment for the coming quarter. The Index for the third quarter of 2008 stands at 141.1 – up from 130.5 for the second quarter of 2008, and 124.7 for the first quarter. (An index value more than 100 indicates positive sentiment, and less than 100 indicates negative sentiment.)

“Coming out of 2007 and early this year, business attitudes were decidedly less cheerful. But the ‘feel good’ economy seems to be making a comeback in Alberta,” says Todd Hirsch, ATB Financial’s Senior Economist. “Most remarkably, business sentiment in the province appears to be improving in an environment where sentiment throughout the U.S. and much of Central Canada is deteriorating.”

Hirsch said the increase in optimism is likely related to the significant rise in oil and natural gas prices since the beginning of 2008.

The sentiments index for the third quarter of 2008 is up in three of the survey’s six sector groupings: oil and gas, construction, and transportation/warehousing.

The strongest rebound in sentiment was among respondents in the oil and gas industry. That grouping shot up to an index value of 161, more than doubling the reading of 74 looking into the second quarter.  That is the strongest increase displayed by any sector in the 11 quarters the Index has been tracked. Very strong oil and gas prices during the survey period (May 26 to June 9) are credited for lifting the sentiment in the energy sector. Seasonal factors also affect the index, such as the anticipation of the summer drilling season following the lull during the spring thaw.

Business sentiment for the third quarter slipped slightly in the manufacturing and wholesale sectors of the economy. The professional/technical sector was essentially unchanged.

The Business Sentiments Index also reveals a growing cleavage between attitudes in the north and south of the province. Sentiment in northern Alberta (including Edmonton and Red Deer) posted an index value of 148.7, considerably higher than the index value of 133.5 in Calgary and southern Alberta. Over the 11 quarters in which the index has been tracked, sentiment in northern Alberta has typically been higher; however, the gap between north and south is now at its widest (15.2 index points).

The overall 141.1 reading for the third quarter of 2008 is down from a strong reading of 152.5 in the comparable third quarter of 2007.

Recently ATB Financial and the Western Centre for Economic Research at the University of Alberta’s School of Business renewed their commitment to publishing this important measure of Alberta’s economic pulse. Future ATB Financial Business Sentiments Index™ will be released on the following dates:

  • Friday, September 19, 2008
  • Thursday, December 18, 2008
  • Thursday, March 19, 2009

 

About ATB Financial – ATB Financial is the largest Alberta-based financial institution in Canada with assets of $23.3 billion. It provides Personal and Business Financial Services, Investor Services and Corporate Financial Services to more than 660,000 Albertans in 244 communities. It provides service through 158 branches and 134 agencies, telephone and Internet banking, a Customer Contact Centre and Automated Banking Machines. ATB Financial was established in 1938 and is a provincial Crown corporation since 1997. For more information about ATB Financial, visit www.atb.com

For further information please contact:

Todd Hirsch
Senior Economist
ATB Financial
(403) 974-5023
e-mail: thirsch@atb.com

 
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