Chart of the Week: Where did all the natural increase go?  

With the arrival of first quarter population estimates this week, our commentary focused on  yet another decline in the Canadian population due to fewer non-permanent residents.

But there’s another factor that’s more structural, and won’t bounce back once immigration patterns normalize – natural increase (births minus deaths). The combination of an aging population and lower fertility rates means that Canada’s population is barely growing naturally (in fact, natural increase turned negative in the last two quarters). We have shown previously that, by the end of the decade, Canada’s population will shrink without immigration. 

In today’s Chart of the Week we show the massive regional variation in natural increase across the country. The older Atlantic provinces have, for some time, had more deaths than births. B.C. is in that category, and has been joined by Quebec. The remaining regions with natural increase are in the Prairies (led by Alberta), Ontario and the territories.

Births and deaths are highly seasonal - as such, we take a 4-quarter moving average to smooth things out.