5/22/2012 9:05 AM The May long weekend is the kick-off to the summer travel season—and it’s often accompanied by an increase in the price of gas at the pump. Alberta gas prices may not have experienced the traditional Victoria Day bump this year, but they still outpaced general price inflation over the past ten years. 5/18/2012 10:12 AM Canadians in other provinces may have noticed a bit of sticker shock in April, but shoppers in Alberta were more likely to notice some price relief—especially for energy. 5/17/2012 9:14 AM Wholesale trade numbers in March came in relatively flat—after a year of posting strong gains. Now, too much shouldn’t be read into a couple of months of data, but this appears to be a sign the economy is catching its breath after expanding at a fairly robust rate. 5/16/2012 8:30 AM Factory floors and refineries in Alberta have been a blur of activity lately. However, the rate of increase seems to have levelled off somewhat in the first quarter of 2012. 5/15/2012 8:28 AM Who doesn't like that new car smell? Attractive financing, combined with a stronger labour market and higher gas prices, is making it easier than its been in a long time for car dealers to convince customers to take the plunge and buy a new, fuel efficient, vehicle. 5/14/2012 8:21 AM With Alberta’s economy back in the groove, it’s a job bonanza for a lot of people—employment is at a record high. Still, the potential job opportunities are not uniform across the province for job seekers. 5/11/2012 10:42 AM Spring seems to have sprung in Alberta’s job market after a bit of a slow stretch over the winter months. In April, the number of people in the province working rose by 10,700—the strongest gain since last summer. 5/10/2012 1:33 PM No man is an island. Neither is Alberta—our trade linkages with the rest of the world are critical. And thanks to firmer energy prices and a somewhat brighter picture south of the border, those linkages have strengthened lately. 5/9/2012 9:37 AM Go to any of Alberta’s airports and take a look at the departure board. It feels like there are more planes leaving than ever before. But surprisingly, data released this morning suggests that’s not the case. In fact, the number of flights at our two largest airports haven’t kept track with population or economic growth. 5/8/2012 9:05 AM Canadian home prices are rising quickly. And as they should, builders and developers look at this development with glee. They see the surge in prices as a sign that housing starts haven’t been sufficient to meet demand. It’s an imbalance that they’re more than willing to help correct. Let’s hope, for everyone’s sake, that the price signal isn’t broken. 5/7/2012 8:18 AM Build it and they will come? Well first, you need permission to build—and the permission slips for Alberta home and non-residential developers are on the rise. 5/4/2012 11:23 AM Signs of a firming labour market in the United States are desperately desired by politicians and markets alike. Unfortunately, after employment reports gave a glimmer of hope over the past six months, the last two jobs reports have underwhelmed observers. 5/3/2012 8:54 AM Buying a home means having a place to hang your hat at night. It’s not principally a "get rich quick" scheme, even if it is normal to see some appreciation. During the boom years this was forgotten, but expectations have certainly been put back in the bottle, making it difficult for many to get excited about the recent real-estate data releases. 5/2/2012 9:19 AM Calgary was the epicentre of housing “bubble” chatter not too long ago. That talk was just over five years ago and after an initial sharp dip and slight rebound following the recession, average residential resale prices remained flat - with finally some signs of growth going into the spring selling season. 5/1/2012 7:55 AM Albertans have a bit more disposable income to spend as our economy fires on almost every cylinder. And it looks like those extra dollars are going to one of Albertans’ favourite activities: dining out. 4/30/2012 9:05 AM Sometimes with the economy, it’s two steps forward and one step back — and in February — the Canadian economy saw itself shuffling in reverse. 4/27/2012 10:39 AM We expected it to be good, but not this good. Alberta’s real GDP expanded by 5.2 per cent in 2011, beating the provincial government’s budget estimate of 3.5 per cent. 4/26/2012 9:57 AM Our booming economy is giving Albertans more reason to smile these days — with employees walking home at the end of the week with fatter paycheques than a year ago. 4/25/2012 8:44 AM Economists track several indicators to get a sense of how the overall economy is performing. One of the best indicators comes from the transportation industry. Rising rail carloads in western Canada suggest higher production and economic activity. 4/24/2012 9:36 AM A big part of the economic recovery has been the resilience of the Canadian shopper. After a brief, sharp, initial dip, wallets opened up and people hit the malls across the country. In February, however, the cash registers slowed down slightly. 4/23/2012 8:16 AM The level of retail sales in shopping malls and big-box retailers give an excellent indicator of the general health of the economy. But how much those same retailers are stocking on their shelves gives another indication about how optimistic they are about future sales. 4/20/2012 9:42 AM Alberta shoppers paid, on average, 1.7% more in March for a typical basket of goods and services than they did a year ago. That rate of increase is down from 1.9% recorded in February, and is the lowest it’s been in twelve months. 4/19/2012 9:08 AM William McChesney Martin, the ninth longest serving chairman of the Federal Reserve, is quoted as saying the job of the central bank is to take the punchbowl away, just as the party gets going. Cheap money gets the party going, but keep it around too long and someone will have a mess on their hands. 4/18/2012 8:48 AM Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is in a tough spot. His mandate is to safeguard price stability in Canada, but by pulling the trigger on interest rates to put the brakes on budding inflationary pressures, he runs risks elsewhere in the economy. 4/17/2012 8:19 AM The level of activity in factories and refineries across Alberta is an important barometer of the overall economy. In February, the province’s manufacturers were churning out product at a fast pace, nearly surpassing a recent record high. But more importantly, they’re making more efficient use of labour. 4/16/2012 8:01 AM One of the most common non-wage benefits offered to Alberta employees is maternity leave, which comes under the federal Employment Insurance program. While at any given time only a small percentage of female employees are on “mat leave,” the trend over the last thirty years in Alberta has shown some interesting patterns. 4/13/2012 11:52 AM A big reason why commodity prices took off over the past decade has been China’s emergence as a major economic power. So while the U.S. is Canada’s most import trading partner, Canada’s economic fortune is almost as closely tied to Chinese growth because of the indirect impact it has on our principle export goods. 4/12/2012 10:18 AM It was hoped that international trade would pick up to help offset an expected slowdown in economic growth resulting from government spending cuts and eventual reduced construction activity in the GTA. Today’s merchandise trade numbers might have thrown a little cold water on that hope. 4/11/2012 9:26 AM Canada’s collective love affair for real estate doesn’t look to be slowing. The figures for new housing starts in March were very strong across the country, indicating that the dour real estate sentiment that’s been circulating isn’t sinking the optimism of builders. 4/10/2012 8:41 AM Easter’s over and the next big date on the calendar is the end of the month, tax filing season is upon us. While it’s hard to find anyone who actually enjoys paying taxes, it’s a necessary evil and more Albertans than not will actually be receiving money from the government—so what do they plan to do with it? 4/9/2012 9:56 AM Some positive economic news was released this morning to start the week. Today the Bank of Canada (BoC) released data showing that lending conditions eased and business optimism increased in the first quarter of 2012. 4/5/2012 9:01 AM Alberta boasted the best labour market in the country last year, creating half of all new jobs from coast to coast. In the spring of 2012, the province is still creating jobs, but at a somewhat slower pace. And in March, central Canada’s job market was playing catch-up to Alberta. 4/4/2012 8:19 AM Calgary’s residential real estate has shown some signs of life this spring with existing home sale prices edging higher. But what’s also positive for sellers is that sales are happening more quickly, and the average number of days a home spends on the market is falling. 4/3/2012 8:03 AM The movement of goods and materials is something that most of us take for granted, but without a reliable and profitable transportation sector, Alberta’s economy would stall. 4/2/2012 8:11 AM The amount households spend on non-essential items—what economists refer to as “discretionary spending”—can often give a good indication of consumer mood and confidence. Judging by the most recent data on what Albertans are spending in restaurants and drinking establishments, they’re feeling fairly upbeat. 3/30/2012 12:03 PM Yesterday in the federal budget, the government of Canada announced its plan to eliminate the production of the 1-cent coin. It’s an excellent move, but the questions to ask are: what is the optimal coinage system in Canada, and could there be additional savings by revamping the whole system? 3/29/2012 7:39 AM When thinking about Asia and Canada’s global trade position, most people’s first thought is our exports to China, or maybe India. But an oft-forgotten giant economy in Asia could be the key to some trade diversity for both Canada and Alberta. 3/28/2012 7:36 AM This week, the Daily Economic Comment has featured new data on both wine and beer consumption in Alberta. Today, the troika is complete! Spirits such as vodka, gin, and tequila also help satisfy the thirst of many Albertans. Here, there’s been a distinct pattern towards foreign products. 3/27/2012 7:51 AM Yesterday the Daily Economic Comment pointed out that wine consumption in Alberta has skyrocketed over 1,000 percent since 1950, from 1.4 to 16.2 litres per person annually. However, the same cannot be said for wine’s somewhat less sophisticated bar room sister—beer. 3/26/2012 8:56 AM Are Albertans a bunch of winers? According to new data released this morning by Statistics Canada, the number of litres of wine consumed by Albertans in 2011 was 16.2 per capita. That is a record high for the province. 3/23/2012 8:37 AM Yesterday we learned from Statistics Canada that retail spending in Alberta reached a new record high in January. This morning we learn that prices paid by those shoppers rose at a much slower rate in February, meaning some better deals on the store shelves. 3/22/2012 8:50 AM In yet another compelling sign that Alberta’s economy is entering another boom, shoppers in the province spent their way to another record high to kick off the New Year. 3/21/2012 9:49 AM The economic news hasn’t been horrible, but it hasn’t been great either. Not only has the unemployment rate in many provinces begun to increase, but governments are also looking to reduce spending. It might seem surprising then that the index of leading indicators keeps rolling higher. 3/20/2012 9:49 AM The American housing market is where the great recession began and it’s also where it will likely end. 3/19/2012 8:28 AM Alberta may top the other provinces in a lot of economic and social indicators, but in terms of enrolment in post-secondary education programs, Wild Rose Country is lagging behind most of the others. 3/16/2012 11:15 AM Shop floors, petroleum refineries, and fabricating centres in Alberta were a bit busier this January, starting off the New Year on the right foot. 3/15/2012 10:11 AM Driving optimism on the state of the United States economy has been a string of strong employment reports, which have pushed the unemployment rate down to 8.3% from 9% just six months prior. 3/14/2012 8:24 AM Shopping for a new car or truck is an activity usually associated with rising consumer confidence and optimism in the economy. If that’s the case, Albertans are feeling better about their job and wage opportunities than they have at any other point since the beginning of the downturn in 2008. 3/13/2012 9:45 AM The national unemployment rate has been creeping up lately, but a look at hiring intentions over the coming months indicates that employers are optimistic that they will be expanding payrolls—especially in Western Canada. 3/12/2012 8:37 AM The disparities between men and women in the workforce are well-documented, but there are gaps between workers of the same gender, as well. Depending of education level, women in Alberta have experienced very different opportunities in the work force. 3/9/2012 10:42 AM Apparently, even juggernauts like the Alberta economy need to stop and recalibrate. After six consecutive months of growth, Alberta’s labour market took a bit of a breather and shed a few jobs in February. 3/8/2012 9:00 AM While forestry is one of Alberta’s oldest and traditionally strongest sectors in Alberta, it is sometimes overshadowed by the much larger energy sector. Local forest product producers have seen some difficult times over the past decade, and challenges remained in 2011. 3/7/2012 9:18 AM The foot appears to be coming off of the pedal somewhat in Canada’s red hot construction industry. According to the Economist magazine, towards the end of 2011 there were at least twice as many skyscrapers (condominium and office towers) under construction in Toronto than in New York—a pace that wasn’t going to be maintained. 3/6/2012 8:07 AM When we think about inflation, we tend to naturally focus on the prices of things we buy frequently, especially food and gasoline. But prices also change for items purchased less frequently, such as hotel and motel accommodation—and prices vary depending on the type of traveller you are. 3/5/2012 8:19 AM Now that RRSP season is over for another year, it’s a good time to reflect on the big picture of preparing for retirement. Contributions to an RRSP are very important, but they’re not the only way in which we plan for the future. Expenditures on CPP and private pensions are also significant—and spending in the Prairies leads the way. 3/2/2012 8:46 AM It started out well, then went into reverse: a strong rally in the summer, but weakness by the late fall. Canada’s economy was growing in fits and starts in 2011, and ended on a bit of a soft note. 3/1/2012 8:00 AM Aside from the jobs and housing market, one of the most anticipated economic indicators south of the border is in manufacturing. The industrial heartland of the US Midwest has been ravaged by the downturn, and new information released this morning suggests that it’s still going to be a long, tough climb higher. 2/29/2012 9:31 AM Investment intentions are ramping up across the country—with private investment leading the way—which is a very good sign that the economy might be stronger in 2012 than expected. This surge will help offset some of the drag on growth we might expect from governments trying to move their budgets back into black. 2/28/2012 8:40 AM Retail gas prices outside of Alberta are now beginning to creep back up to pre-recession levels. While provincial differentials in the price of gas have always existed to some extent, the emerging gap between what Albertans pay and what drivers in the rest of Canada pay is unprecedented. 2/27/2012 9:58 AM Apartment rents have remained fairly steady over the past few years, but with another economic boom underway in Alberta, that could change.
2/24/2012 10:46 AM The business of farming on the Canadian prairies often comes down to a game of timing: when to plant, when to harvest, and when to sell. Alberta farmers had quite a good year in 2011, and with the abundant crop yield in the autumn, many of them have been holding on to inventories throughout the winter, taking advantage of good prices. 2/23/2012 8:46 AM Alberta continues to be the place to be for job seekers in Canada. And not only are jobs more plentiful, they pay (on average) the most and are rising more quickly than the Canadian average. 2/22/2012 9:01 AM Every time Bank of Canada Governor Marc Carney steps in front of a microphone, he reminds Canadians how important it is to borrow prudently, and with good reason. Getting less attention to date is the fact that a good chunk of the borrowing (household and government) is only made possible thanks to foreigners extending us credit. 2/21/2012 9:57 AM Shoppers were out in December, but they weren’t out in full force. Retail sales for December turned out to be underwhelming and is further evidence that the economy might be slowing. Also reinforced in the retail sales numbers for December was the regional gap that continues to widen. 2/17/2012 11:12 AM The latest survey of prices from Statistics Canada shows that, overall, shoppers are seeing only modest price inflation at the beginning of 2011. 2/16/2012 8:11 AM Refineries and factory floors throughout Alberta really ramped up production last year. But by the time December 2011 rolled around, it appears that some of them were ready for a bit of a break. 2/15/2012 9:45 AM The American housing market was ground zero for the great recession, meanwhile the Canadian housing market helped steer the Canadian economy through the worst of it. Today, the two real-estate markets again appear to be pointed in starkly different directions. 2/14/2012 8:43 AM Today may be St. Valentine’s Day, but at least one love affair seems to be cooling down a bit. The enthusiasm with which Albertans snapped up new motor vehicles slumped towards the end of 2011. 2/13/2012 8:26 AM After years of talking about record world food prices, it might come as a surprise that wheat stocks are now estimated to be at all time highs. A couple years ago, drought in Eastern Europe severely limited the grain harvest; but since then, it certainly looks like silos have been more than replenished. 2/10/2012 10:56 AM The global downturn and precipitous drop in natural gas prices turned Alberta’s fiscal picture on its head a few years ago. After a string of strong surpluses, the provincial government was hurdled into a deficit position in the 2008-09 fiscal year—and deficits have persisted ever since. 2/9/2012 8:06 AM Analysts of Alberta’s residential real estate market might be verging on a bit of boredom lately. For over two years, the ticket price for newly built homes has remained basically unchanged in both of Alberta’s two largest cities. 2/8/2012 10:26 AM The 2011 Census confirmed what most people already knew: Alberta’s population is growing at almost twice the national rate. Ontarians should rest assured of their dominant place in confederacy because even at current growth rates it would take well over 150 years before Alberta is the most populace province. 2/7/2012 9:44 AM While the condo boom is alive and kicking in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), in Alberta the love affair with little boxes in the sky has yet to be rekindled since the recession hit. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, especially given the amount of concern being raised about what is driving condo activity in Canada’s largest city. 2/6/2012 8:34 AM This past week, the Labour Force Survey showed that Alberta continues to have the strongest job market in the country. But the degree to which Albertans participate in the workforce varies—especially among the five mid-sized cities across the province. 2/3/2012 9:46 AM Perhaps the news that the national unemployment rate ticked up in January shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Public officials have been warning for some time that the economy is slowing down, but seeing it confirmed in statistical releases is nonetheless disconcerting. 2/2/2012 8:26 AM After more than a half year of pessimistic outlooks for the world’s economy, it’s time to remind ourselves that all is not bad with the state of the world. Impending doom and gloom in Europe has monopolized the headlines lately, but news on American manufacturing has been surprisingly good of late. 2/1/2012 9:04 AM The past decade was certainly a golden one for Alberta’s housing market. Low interest rates, easier credit, strong net migration, and impressive employment growth all worked together to fuel the market. Expecting a second golden decade so close after the first is foolhardy though, as there are some important headwinds coming. 1/31/2012 10:46 AM The Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted slightly in November by 0.1%, which comes as a bit of a surprise. Given the state of the world, the consensus opinion was that the economy was slowing, but a contraction wasn’t seen as likely. 1/30/2012 8:46 AM There were a lot of doomsday predictions for Alberta’s office markets back in 2009, particularly in Calgary where towers were sprouting up left, right and center. However, much to the chagrin of doomsayers, Alberta’s downtown office markets finished 2011 in remarkable shape. 1/27/2012 10:41 AM Prior to 2004 Ontario had the highest average weekly wages of any province in Canada, at which time it was overtaken by Alberta. Fast forward to November 2011 and average wages in Ontario are in fourth place, behind upand-comers Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. 1/26/2012 7:11 AM The US Federal Funds rate has been at a band of between 0% and 0.25% since late 2008, and according to a press release made by the US Central Bank yesterday, it is projected to remain there for nearly three more years. 1/25/2012 8:36 AM The Roughriders might have been the only thing in Saskatchewan to not have a banner year in 2011. In fact, the economy has been so hot in the province that housing prices are causing affordability issues, with Saskatoon being less affordable than both Calgary and Edmonton. 1/24/2012 8:28 AM Shoppers in Alberta spent $5.64 billion (seasonally adjusted) at retail outlets in November, a rise of 1.0% from October and up 8.3% from a year ago. November’s surge marks the fourth consecutive monthly gain for retail sales in Alberta and the fourth month in a row sales growth has also outpaced the national rate. 1/23/2012 9:13 AM General consumer inflation in Alberta eased a bit towards the end of the year, yet 2011 was marked by rising prices for gasoline and food. Fortunately for agricultural producers in this province, the prices they received for their output also made steady gains. 1/20/2012 11:46 AM Everyone loves paying less for things, especially during the holiday season. And according to inflation numbers released this morning, that’s exactly what happened in December. Inflation, US housing starts, the global GDP forecast & more in the Weekly. 1/19/2012 9:41 AM Across North America, a nascent recovery in manufacturing is raising some hopes of the general economy returning to health. Factory floors and refineries in Alberta were doing more than their part to boost shipments towards the end of last year. 1/18/2012 8:17 AM Much of the time, statistics and analysis of the construction sector focus on residential housing starts. But once a quarter, Statistics Canada provides an update on what’s happening in the other side of the industry: nonresidential construction. 1/17/2012 9:44 AM Consumers and businesses in Canada have benefitted greatly from very low interest rates since the economy took a tumble in late 2008. And according to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) first rate announcement of 2012, rates are remaining near rock-bottom lows. 1/16/2012 8:06 AM Car lot owners have been amongst the biggest beneficiaries of the rebounding Albertan economy. The most recent data on new vehicle sales in Alberta might show a slight monthly dip, but the trend over the past year puts sales near pre-recession levels. 1/13/2012 7:32 AM Global trade among the world’s major economies is still recovering from the downturn a few years ago, and Alberta is no exception. Alberta's exports, US retail sales, the 2012 crop price forecast, and more in this Weekly Economic Bulletin. 1/12/2012 8:26 AM With so much focus lately on oil sands projects and bitumen pipelines, it is easy to forget that other pillar of Alberta’s energy sector: natural gas. Prices have been soft for the past two years, but lately things have been going from bad to worse. 1/11/2012 9:59 AM Filing for bankruptcy can be one of the most difficult decisions people are forced to make. And fortunately, as of the most recent reading, consumer bankruptcies in Alberta were at a more than three year low. 1/10/2012 1:50 PM Almost all the Alberta economic indicators were on the uptrend in 2011 with one of the few exceptions being housing starts. But while the number of homes being built remained subdued, it was at least moving in the right direction towards year end. 1/9/2012 9:09 AM Much economic insight can be gained simply by going out and asking companies what they’re experiencing. And according to one survey, Canadian firms are less optimistic.
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