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Currency: Monday, February 22

Posted on: February 22, 2016

Brexit, the topic that everybody is talking about over the weekend. UK has set a date to vote on whether to stay in the EU on June 23, 2016. London Mayor Boris Johnson is saying he’ll be in favour for leaving the EU. So far the polls show a much divided population just like it was for the Scotland vote. Considering how that injected a lot of volatility into the GBP, I would expect the same with this one, especially as we move closer to the date.

GBP took a hit over the weekend as you would expect. GBPUSD is 1.5% lower on the news. I suspect this might be a start of a move for the GBP and GBPCAD might be a good way to play to the sterling weakness with CAD holding its own in the last month and most of the oil weakness seems to have played out already.

Oil trading below $30 overnight but has rallied back to above $31 right now which has help the CAD rallied as well. USDCAD has been consolidating between 1.36 and 1.40 for the last two weeks as it follows the ever volatile oil price. I expect that to remain the same for rest of the week as the market focus its attention on the GBP, unless oil breaks significantly above 32 or below 26.

  • Previous Day’s NA Range: 1.3737- 1.3847
  • Asia overnight range: 1.3749– 1.3793
  • London overnight range: 1.3724 - 1.3778


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