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Oil prices stabilize…for now

Posted on: March 28, 2017

After seeing some interesting moves overnight yesterday, price action fizzled into the North America session. USDCAD tested support again at 1.3320 before taking another run at resistance as oil prices sold off to start the North American session. USDJPY was the big mover again, with the psychological level of 110 holding for now. EURUSD also broke above 1.09 but faded back below the 200-day moving average heading into the New York close. Currently Macron is leading Le Pen in the polls which is helping to ease worries about European political risk. Although those that remember the lead that Hillary Clinton had in the polls and “Stay” had in the Brexit vote might offer a word of caution about prediction markets.

This morning data out of the US was mixed, with Wholesale Inventories coming in above expectations while the trade deficit narrowed as imports fell more than exports. Later this morning we get the text from Poloz’s speech at Durham College, with the press conference beginning shortly after 9am MT. Canadian data has been better than expected for the most part recently, we will see if he focuses on this during the Q and A or renewed oil price worries.

For those watching USDCAD, we saw some stop hunting yesterday, as participants used a sell off in crude oil to run stops above 1.3400. We have taken another run at them overnight, as the market remains less than optimistic that any OPEC decision won’t be offset by US shale producers turning the taps back on. Initial support sits around 1.3320 with 1.3260/70 behind it. On the topside, resistance remains around 1.3410/20 as the market looks for a break below $47 in oil or some combination of Hawkish Fed comments or a dovish Poloz speech today.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3339 – 1.3403
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3375– 1.3414
  • London Overnight Range 1.3376 – 1.3412

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