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Trump administration talks tough on trade, hammering the loonie

Posted on: April 25, 2017

It is clear that the phrase “no use crying over spilled milk” has not made it south of the border. Overnight President Trump and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross continued to talk tough on Canadian dairy and softwood lumber, with Ross even going so far as to suggest that Canada was engaging in protectionism and announcing a 20% tariff on Canadian timber imports. This morning Trump tweeted that “Canada has made business for our dairy warmers…very difficult” putting more pressure on the Canadian dollar. After retracing to a low of 1.3420 on Sunday, we are currently making new YTD highs and flirting with 1.36.

Elsewhere, USDJPY is breaking higher again as the market returns to risk-on mode with concerns about the French elections on the backburner for now. The ECB meeting still looms on the horizon as well as duel GDP numbers in the US and Canada.

For those watching USDCAD, the accusations or protectionism from south of the border are not helping CAD, and oil weakness is compounding the problem. There are lots of offers around 1.36, but a weak GDP number or more tough trade talk in Trump’s announcement tomorrow could push us through which would open up a run at 1.38. Canadian retail sales tomorrow may also knock things around a bit. If you have dollars to sell it would be prudent to unload some here as 1.3600 is a big level. If you need to buy dollars you can try and buy on dips but if that 1.3600/20 channel break to the topside you will likely see it run a bit on you.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3425 – 1.3521
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3499– 1.3566
  • London Overnight Range 1.3550 – 1.3614


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