Navigate Up
Sign In

NAFTA Waffling whips around USDCAD as Trump makes tax announcement

Posted on: April 27, 2017

Headline trading in full force over the past 24 hours, as USDCAD remained at the mercy of the Trump Administrations policies. Yesterday the White House presented its vision for tax reform, including three simplified tax-brackets and moving to a territorial system for foreign income. After flirting with 1.3600 CAD began to rally when there was no talk of a border adjusted tax. Just when it looked like we would break support around 1.3550, a headline printed suggesting Trump was planning to immediately withdraw from NAFTA, quickly sending USDCAD through 1.3600 and USDMXN through 19. This information is not new, but seemed like participants were looking for a reason to buy the USD.

Overnight, US officials walked back the headline, instead stating Trump would begin renegotiations with Canada and Mexico which caused CAD to rally 100 pips before fading a bit as WTI broke below $49. The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged but lowered its inflation forecast. Despite lots of data out of the United States this morning, today the big event is across the pond with the ECB rate decision and Draghi on the tapes as I am writing this. Statements such as ‘risks moving closer to being broadly balanced’ and ‘recovery increasingly solid’ had the EUR about 30 pips higher before statements regarding inflation concerns caused a reversal.

For those watching USDCAD, clearly participants got a little trigger happy on the NAFTA headline yesterday. While the close above 1.3600 is bullish and could open up an extension to 1.3839, the quick sell-off after the correction should provide some caution. If you are a USD bull with dollars to sell, you should take comfort in the fact that the technical breakdown in WTI is not conducive to commodity currency strength. GDP numbers tomorrow are certainly something to be aware of, with estimates of 0.1% for February in Canada while in the US its 1% for Q1. If you need to buy dollars you can try and buy on dips but a poor GDP reading in Canada combined with a strong print in the US could see a quick run towards 1.37.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3543 – 1.3623
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3530– 1.3648
  • London Overnight Range 1.3550 – 1.3600


Most Recent Market Updates

November 20, 2017

Natural gas gains 4.4 cents

NYMEX natural gas climbed 4.4 cents higher on Friday.

November 20, 2017

Crude gained $1.41

Crude prompt futures gained $1.41 on Friday to close the day at $56.55.

November 17, 2017

Natural gas falls 2.7 cents

NYMEX natural gas continued it’s decent on Thursday.

November 17, 2017

Crude prices slide $0.19

Crude prompt futures traded in a 69 cent range.

November 17, 2017

USDCAD range bound as Canadian CPI uneventful

Domestically we saw the biggest release of the week a few minutes ago.

November 14, 2017

Natural gas loses 5 cents

Cold weather emerged over the long weekend in the US Midwest to East as anticipated.


Talk to a specialist

GlassdooreSSENTIAL Accessibility™Diversity and Inclusion

About ATB | Contact Us | Find a Branch or ABM | Current Rates | Privacy and Security | Legal | Code of Conduct | Site Map | Vendor Resources

2017 ATB Financial. All rights reserved. ®ATB Financial is a trade name/registered trademark of Alberta Treasury Branches.

ATB Financial