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Quiet start to currency markets as participants await FOMC/Payrolls

Posted on: May 01, 2017

May has begun with a whisper in currency markets, as most of Europe and Asia are enjoying a bank holiday. Over the weekend Congress announced they have reached a deal to avoid a government shutdown and fund operations through the end of September. Positive data out of Australia has AUD and NZD outperforming while Chinese PMI disappoints. USDCAD remains right around where New York closed last week. Looking ahead, this week will be a busy one in terms of economic data and event risk. This morning Personal Income and Spending in the US came in slightly below expectations, and we get ISM numbers a little later. On Wednesday the FOMC announces the rate decision for May. While they are expected to leave rates unchanged (Currently 14% chance of a hike), the focus will be on the language to see if they give any more clues to a June hike or if they will push it off even further, which would be USD bearish. To close the week on Friday we have double payrolls in the US and Canada with the median estimate calling for +190k in the US and +10k in Canada. We will see if the US can recover from its weak print last month. Finally, over the weekend we get the second round of the French election. Macron remains in the lead, but over the last 12 months stranger results have certainly occurred.

For those watching USDCAD, with little on the Canadian economic calendar until trade numbers on Thursday, look for CAD to be pushed around by the crosses. Oil has managed to hold its head above $49 to start the week, but a break lower would be bearish for CAD. Today should be quiet with most of Europe and Asia on holiday. Key support comes in just below 1.3600 at the previous double tops while on the top side there will be lots of offers into 1.3700. Charts have opened up to a run at 1.3839 but would not be surprised if we see consolidation first.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3635 – 1.3697
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3637– 1.3683
  • London Overnight Range 1.3648 – 1.3687

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