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Quiet start to the week ahead of US CPI

Posted on: September 11, 2017

A reasonably quiet weekend in the markets with the focus on Hurricane Irma and its impact on Florida and the Caribbean. The USD has rallied against most of the G10 to start the week, with CAD being the major outlier. North Korea surprised everyone by not testing an ICBM over the weekend, helping to spark some risk on action. Oil is up off of Friday’s low, which saw USDCAD test 1.2100 again after taking a look below on Friday after job numbers. Expect 1.2000 to still be psychological support, with major support coming in around 1.1920/30. 1.2160 will be initial resistance with risk to the topside given the stretched nature of CAD positioning.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the Canadian economic calendar is without a major release so expect the Canadian dollar to be dragged by the crosses. South of the border, the main event will be CPI numbers on Thursday. There is the possibility of a headline beat thanks to recent increases in gasoline prices from the hurricanes. Friday brings US Retail Sales, and between CPI and Retail Sales USD bulls are hoping for some life to return to the possibility of a Q4 rate hike. Canada still has one more hike priced in by the end of 2017.

England will also be a major focus this week, with CPI tomorrow and employment numbers on Wednesday ahead of the Bank of England on Thursday. If that wasn’t enough, Parliament is expected to vote on the Brexit Bill this evening with rumors of senior Labour MPs defying leadership and voting with the bill.

  • Friday's NA 1.2078 - 1.2165
  • Asia 1.2132 - 1.2162
  • London 1.2098 - 1.2139

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