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Currency: Monday, April 25

Posted on: April 25, 2016

The week is starting off slowly as the market is in waiting mode for a couple of important central bank decisions this week. FOMC rate decision and statement is on Wednesday and the BOJ meeting is on Thursday. Market is not expecting much change from FOMC but more looking for hints of a possible rate change next meeting in June. There is only 1 in 5 chance of a hike for June right now in the futures market. Any hint of hike in June may spark a USD rally.

The BOJ might cause some headlines this week with the upcoming decision on Thursday. 56% of respondents to Bloomberg BOJ survey expect action this month. Seems like half of the market could be caught on the wrong side after the BOJ decision and cause an expansion in volatility. Might be a good play to get long against the 110.67 support risking 109.50 targeting 114 or more.

The British Pound rallied over the weekend with Obama saying that Britain may have to wait a decade for a free trade deal with the USD if it votes to leave the EU. Right now the bookies are putting the odd of UK voting to remain in the EU at 75%, but polls can be unpredictable like we saw with the Scottish referendum.

With the FOMC on Wednesday and not much economic data today. I would continue to play the 1.2600/1.2750 range in USDCAD unless crude makes a break to either side of 42 or 45.

  • Previous Day’s NA Range 1.2623 - 1.2738
  • Asia overnight range 1.2652– 1.2694
  • London overnight range 1.2664 - 1.2717

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