The Twenty-Four Seven by ATB

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Chart of the Week

Chart of the Week: On route to 7 million

The demographics team at Alberta Treasury Board and Finance (TBF) have released new detailed population projections for Alberta out to 2051.

The near-term numbers line up closely to our latest economic forecast—a period of slower population growth in 2026 and 2027 due to NPR outflows. Then a normalization. It averages out to 1.3% population growth between now and 2051 (medium-growth scenario). That’s much higher than national forecasts due to two factors: 1) interprovincial migration; and 2) natural increases (births minus deaths).

In the absence of a crystal ball, TBF runs low and high scenarios as well. TBF’s medium-growth projection is pretty close to Statistics Canada’s M2 medium-growth scenario. In that scenario, Alberta exceeds B.C.'s population by 2038 to become Canada’s third most populous province.

Bottom line: Expect around 7 million Albertans by 2051 (up from 5 million today), with a population that’s older and more urban than you see right now.

Economic Insights Focused on Alberta's Economy

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THE TWENTY-FOUR (daily)

Retail sales, the unemployment rate, population growth, inflation, international trade—these are just a few of the economic trends the team makes sense of in ATB’s daily insights.

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Behind the scenes

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THE SEVEN (weekly)

A review of the key economic highlights of the week impacting Alberta.

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