indicatorThe Owl

Strong Indigenous population growth projected

The Indigenous population is projected to grow faster than the non-Indigenous population

By Rob Roach, ATB Economics 7 October 2021 1 min read

New demographic projections from Statistics Canada suggest that the Indigenous identity population* in Alberta will grow by 48% between now and 2041, going from about 324,000 to 480,000.

That’s the medium-growth scenario. In the low-growth scenario, Alberta’s Indigenous population increases by 38%; its 59% in the high-growth scenario.

Nationally, the medium-growth scenario sees the Indigenous population expand by 38%, going from 2,059,000 in 2021 to 2,848,000 in 2041.

According to Statistics Canada, “the Indigenous population is projected to grow faster than the non-Indigenous population” for two main reasons: “higher fertility and changes in the self-reporting of Indigenous identity over a person's lifetime, with some individuals newly self-identifying as Indigenous in the census, a trend that has continued over time.”

As of 2021, Alberta has the third largest Indigenous population in Canada after Ontario (469,000) and B.C. (331,000). In the medium-growth scenario, Alberta will surpass B.C. to have the second largest Indigenous population in the country.

Also in the medium-growth scenario, the proportion of the Indigenous population living on reserve in Alberta goes from about 19% today to 14% in 2041.

*The Indigenous population includes First Nations, Métis and Inuit.

Answer to the previous trivia question: There are about 170,000 businesses with employees in Alberta.

Today’s trivia question: Not including the territories, which province has the largest Indigenous population as a percentage of its total population?

The Indigenous population in Alberta is projected to grow by between 38% and 59% by 2041

The Indigenous population in Alberta is projected to grow by between 38% and 59% by 2041


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