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Markets sit idle with several holidays

Posted on: May 02, 2016

The market is off to a quiet start with UK and China both closed for holidays. Japan will be on holiday from Tuesday to Thursday for Golden Week. Yen is still trading near the 2016 low just above 106 which is putting pressure on USD. The Dollar Index has hit the lowest level since last August. EURUSD and GBPUSD all both at recent high with USD longs unwinding their positions.

In the equities world, Halliburton and Baker Hughes call off their $28B merger under the weight of world wide antitrust opposition. Warren Buffett slams hedge funds in the annual Berkshire shareholders meeting. Mr. Buffett showed a chart Saturday comparing the cumulative returns of the two since 2008. As of the end of 2015, the S&P 500 had a cumulative return of 65.7%, outdoing the hedge fund’s 21.9% return by a large margin. This is looking good for Buffett’s bet with hedge fund Protégé Partners that the Vanguard S&P500 Index fund will outperform the cumulative returns of five fund-of-funds picked by Protégé over a decade.

USDCAD holds a tight range overnight with London out on holiday. USDCAD bears failed to break the 1.2500 on Friday may provide a temporary relief for the bulls. However, it will still be dictated by oil and risk asset. I’m going to keep playing the range with my eyes focus on some key levels in a number of different currency pairs (1.25 in USDCAD, 1.15 in EURUSD and 105 in USDJPY). There could be a domino effect that a clean break of one level could cause break in the other pairs as well.

  • Previous Day’s NA Range 1.2499 - 1.2587
  • Asia overnight range 1.2530– 1.2571
  • London overnight range 1.2513- 1.2559


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Cold weather emerged over the long weekend in the US Midwest to East as anticipated.


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