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Disappointing NFP not denting the USD rally

Posted on: May 09, 2016

The RBA slashed inflation forecasts overnight while leaving GDP and unemployment projections unchanged. Australian bond yields fell sharply and AUDUSD fell over 100bps from the close yesterday as the chance of another cut in August is looking more probable. Else where, all the other majors were relatively flat awaiting the NFP release.

NFP comes in much lower than expected at 160K (exp. 200K). Canadian employment also a bit worse at -2.1K (exp. +1.0K). The missed NFP obviously doesn’t increase the chance of a June hike from the Fed. Even then, the USD has been resilient recovering much of its loss from the NFP number. USDCAD could not break through the 1.2836 overnight low and rallied to a high of 1.2952 and since consolidated in the 1.2900 area now.

With the NFP out of the way, the market will go on the weekend mode for the rest of the day. Looking ahead next week, we got the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. Although that might not be much in focus as the Brexit decision hangs over the pound.

  • Previous Day’s NA Range: 1.2786 - 1.2875
  • Asia overnight range: 1.2852– 1.2881
  • London overnight range: 1.2836- 1.2900

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