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Beige book and ECB put markets on hold

Posted on: June 01, 2016

Yesterday, we saw nervous traders selling oil ahead of the OPEC meeting tomorrow. Oil briefly touched above $50 before crashing down to $48.81 in afternoon trading. CAD sold off along with the oil and USDCAD railed from the low of 1.3017 in early trading to break the Monday’s high of 1.3095 to make a new weekly high of 1.3134 before settling back into the 1.3100 area at the close.

GBP was the big mover yesterday with the polls showing 45% favouring leave compared to 42% favouring remain. With the book makers pricing the odd of remaining at 80%, there clearly is a divergent here. With 3 weeks remaining to the voting day and GBP has been priced optimistically to stay within the EU, I think the GBP has risk to the downside.

Overnight, the Yen was the big mover with the delayed tax hike. This prompted risk aversion with JPY up 1.2% against the USD and Nikkei down 1.5%. Copper fell the most in 3 weeks amid the risk off mode.

ISM reported marginally higher at 51.3 compared to survey of 50.3. This gives a bit of support to the June hike camp. With the beige book later today and ECB tomorrow, it seems the market has already gone into wait and see mode as the market consolidates within recent range. So I will look to play the 1.3020 – 1.3134 range for today.

  • Previous Day’s NA Range 1.3017 - 1.3134
  • Asia overnight range 1.3053– 1.3099
  • London overnight range 1.3051- 1.3101


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