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Brexit and soft Chinese data sour risk sentiment

Posted on: June 13, 2016

Risk-off this morning with three more EU Referendum polls released over the weekend, one showing a 10pt lead for the leave camp with mixed results for the other two. The pound took a pounding as it trades weaker against all currencies. With Brexit concerns in the background, the release of soft Chinese data overnight put risk on its back foot. Commodities and risk sentiment are taking a hit. WTI hit a low of 48.16 early in the morning after trading the 51 handle last week. SP500 could not break through the all time high and is trading 2% down from last week’s high.

We got a busy central bank schedule this week with FOMC kicking off on Wednesday and Bank of Japan and Bank of England on Thursday. Given the concern of Brexit and June hike almost completely off the table, the FOMC might be a non-event.

Liquidity is definitely not there given the jitteriness of market participants because of Brexit evident by 1 month GBPUSD volatility trading at 27 instead of the usual 8 to 10 range. Market will probably remain on the sideline till all the central bank announcement but expect FX to be volatile within the recent ranges.

Good luck trading!

  • Previous Day’s NA Range: 1.2660- 1.2781
  • Asia overnight range: 1.2771 – 1.2810
  • London overnight range: 1.2763 - 1.2799

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