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Currency: Brexit Day

Posted on: June 23, 2016

The day that everybody is waiting for is finally here. The Brits are hitting the polls today to determine if the UK is going to stay in the EU. The polls will close at 3pm MST and there won't be any exit polls. So the results will trickle in through out the night with the first announcement of vote turnout to be expected around 4:30pm MST. This could set the early tone for the vote as a lower turnout is expected to be favor the Brexit camp with them being the more motivated to vote.

The results for the first counting areas will come in at 5:30pm MST. Half the results are expected to come in between 8-9PM MST. By midnight, all votes are likely to have been counted and the result is to be expected shortly after. If it is not, then it is very likely the result is very close and might take a bit more time to check the count.

Whatever the result is, it should be volatile in the markets. It's already been quite a day with GBPUSD reaching a new yearly high of 1.4947 as the market expect the UK to remain in the EU. USDCAD put in a 150bp range overnight as it fell from the 1.2810 to put in the intraday low of 1.2679 before trading back to the 1.2760 area right now.

A Brexit result is generally be viewed as negative to risk and USDCAD will likely rally as commodities get hit and a flight of capital into the greenback. On the other hand, if UK remain then oil may rally and reach the $52 handle. USDCAD will be pull along and may reach the 1.2500 area. My preferred plan is to stay on the sideline before the binary outcome. If you do have to trade, stay nimble!

Good luck trading!

  • Previous Day's NA Range 1.2742- 1.2853
  • Asia overnight range 1.2794 - 1.2847
  • London overnight range 1.2679 - 1.2811


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