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Jackson Hole over, now for Non-Farm Payroll

Posted on: August 29, 2016

Janet Yellen signalled a hawkish stance on Friday saying recent economic data has improved to a possible rate hike before the end of the year. However, it was definitely not widely agreed upon decision judging from Market’s reaction on Friday. USD whipsawed with USD going bid as the initial reaction but sold off triggering many stop losses in a matter of minutes and then going higher than the initial reaction to trade much higher at the end of the day. USDCAD followed the general USD flow as it shot up to 1.2948 after initial comments and crashed down to 1.2832 before propelling higher to 1.3012 at the end of the day.

With the UK holiday today, the markets are taking a step back to take in the Jackson Hole’s comments and aftermath. The market is now pricing in a 36% for a hike for September meeting and 45% chance for December meeting. I am leaning towards a December hike as nobody wants to stir the pot before the US president election in November.

The feel for today is that USD is slowing getting bid up but now the market has its focus on Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll. The expectation is 180K and a result a lot different than that will see another repricing of the hiking expectation for the September and December meetings. The USDCAD has resistance around the 1.3085 area which should cap its advance with London out for holiday.

Good luck trading!

  • Previous Day’s NA Range 1.2832 - 1.3012
  • Asia overnight range 1.2979 – 1.3025
  • London overnight range 1.2997- 1.3027


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