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Currency markets focus shifts to US election

Posted on: November 07, 2016

A reasonably quiet end to the week on Friday, as USDCAD was content to churn in a 30-point range for most of the day. The exception was a misguided OPEC headline stating that Saudi Arabia was going to raise production significantly, causing WTI to tumble and CAD to weaken before a retraction reversed the move.

With little data or central bank activity this week, the market focuses on the US election. Over the weekend the FBI came out and once again cleared Clinton of any wrong doing, sparking a risk-on trade as equities and CAD and MXN benefitted.

If Trump manages to pull off the upset tomorrow, CAD and MXN should sell off as his views on immigration and trade agreements are not supportive. However with a Clinton win mostly priced in, there is unlikely to be a ton of reaction if she wins. Either way, it will be compelling.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3388 – 1.3465
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3343 – 1.3397
  • London Overnight Range 1.3380 – 1.3418


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