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Volumes light as event risk clouds horizon

Posted on: January 16, 2017

Event risk is the name of the game this week, with four big events to keep an eye on. The first is a speech by Teresa May tomorrow around Brexit. Rumours of a “Hard Brexit”, with the UK pulling out of the single market, have caused GBP to open lower to start the week. We could see a test of 1.20 if that happens tomorrow.

Wednesday is the Bank of Canada decision, with the market expecting the BoC to maintain rates but acknowledge the significant downside risks. We will see if the recent uptick and temporary stabilization of oil prices impact the tone of the speech. Thursday we have the ECB and finally Friday we close the week with the Trump Inauguration, with again the market looking for more policy specifics from the President Elect. A focus on protectionism such as tariffs and more specifics about plans for the wall/fence should be bearish for both CAD and MXN.

If that wasn’t enough to think about, we have a few key data points this week as well, with US CPI numbers on Wednesday and Canadian CPI on Friday headlining the show. Volumes will likely be light today due to MLK Day in the US. I still like buying dips in USDCAD, but will be watching the events this week very closely to see if they inspire a change in outlook.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3113– 1.3164
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3119– 1.3147
  • London Overnight Range 1.3129– 1.3164


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