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CAD range trading around 1.3360 as market awaits FOMC rate announcement

Posted on: March 16, 2016

Somewhat predictably, market participants have spent the last two days paring USD shorts, on the belief that today’s FOMC statement will be somewhat hawkish. Personally, I don’t see that, I expect a neutral outlook that will not give any reason to start to price rate hikes back in. Combined with talk of a new OPEC meeting this week to discuss production freezes helping crude to bounce back from $36.00, and I think CAD, currently at 1.3350, is likely to rally back below 1.3300 this afternoon.

In the last 24 hours the market has tried and failed 3 times to take it above 1.3400, which to me signals a bit of exhaustion of this last bounce from 1.3180.

I guess we will find out in 2 hours, I will be small short USD going into the announcement, and add to it on a break below 1.3330 (200 day moving average).

  • Tuesday’s Inter-bank range: 1.3338 -1 .3403
  • Asia overnight Inter-bank range: 1.3349 – 1.3375
  • London overnight Inter-bank range: 1.3350 – 1.3386

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