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Central banks stand pat

Posted on: February 02, 2017

Yesterday it was the US Fed’s turn in the Central Bank shuffle, and they managed to underwhelm the market by failing to provide the hawkish “surprise” that most were expecting. The USD was sold against most crosses, with the market is now looking towards June as the most likely first hike. This makes the whole “three hikes in 2017” idea very compressed.

Overnight, it was Mark Carney and the Bank of England’s turn. They left rates unchanged at 0.25% and the asset purchase target also remained static, but they did bump up the GDP forecast to 2%. The big outperformer overnight was our friends down under, as strong trade numbers out of Australia has the AUD rallying against most crosses, stalling before 0.77 against the USD.

This morning the data is limited, with US Initial Jobless Claims coming in slightly below expectations. Markets seem to be consolidating ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow, but that could all change in 140 characters or less these days. USDCAD has taken another run below 1.3000 overnight and this morning, but 1.2980 is holding for now. Should we see a break below, we will be able to gauge participants appetite for a run lower by the enthusiasm for running stops around 1.2950/1.2900.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3036 – 1.3102
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.2999 – 1.3052
  • London Overnight Range 1.2981 – 1.3013


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