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Canadian retail sales underwhelm

Posted on: February 22, 2017

For those watching USDCAD who managed to stay awake through yesterday’s session, I applaud you. After a session confined to a 30-point range that would make ‘Watching Paint Dry’ seem like a Michael Bay blockbuster, we have seen considerably more action already this morning.

Canadian Retail Sales came in significantly below expectations, even after stripping out autos, printing -0.3% compared to expectations of +0.5%. While certainly a bad print, it is important to note that year/year we currently sit at 4.3%, well ahead of the 1.8% of the previous year. For now however, participants seem to be focused on the current month, and have sent USDCAD barreling toward 1.3200 where it is currently trying to run the stops. USD bulls have be reignited, and we will see if this momentum holds throughout the EIA crude inventory report and the Fed minutes. Resistance sits around 1.3210/20, which may cap some of the move for now.

Elsewhere, yesterday the big news was Banxico stepping in with a $20 billion USD facility to try and deter speculative short positions against the Peso, which caused it to trade below 20 against the USD for the first time since Trump was elected. Overnight the JPY enjoyed some strength after Kuroda suggested that the Bank of Japan is ready to ease, but the chance of a further negative rate cut was slim. IFO Surveys in Germany suggest economic optimism continues to grow while uncertainty about French and Dutch Nationalist movements cloud the future of the Eurozone.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3129 – 1.3165
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3110 – 1.3152
  • London Overnight Range 1.3143 – 1.3210


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