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Markets await Trump’s speech to congress

Posted on: February 28, 2017

We kick started the week in currency markets with a groggy yawn on Monday, as participants were reluctant to have big positions ahead of risk events later this week including a speech from President Trump to Congress tonight. USDCAD was content to play in a 30-point range until rumors of the speech containing tough talk on import taxes sent USDCAD higher.

Overnight, Japanese data was mixed with Industrial Production declining while Retail Sales were better than expected. The Bank of Japan and especially Kuroda continues to provide lip service towards hitting an inflation target of 2%, but the proof will be in the pudding prices. This morning USD GDP had a miss on the headline number (1.9% versus expectations of 2.1%) but was still a reasonably strong report overall.

For those watching USDCAD, this morning we have run some stops above 1.3200. We will see if there is any sustained momentum up here or if we slide lower again. Tomorrow we hear from the Bank of Canada, who are presented with an interesting challenge of trying to keep CAD lower amidst some positive economic signs. If Trump is more aggressive toward border taxes tonight, especially import taxes, we could see another test of 1.3300. Currently we are flirting with resistance above 1.3200, while support continues to be strong around 1.3000.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3084 – 1.3181
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3168 – 1.3196
  • London Overnight Range 1.3165 – 1.3227

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