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Political risk in France continues to hamstring Euro

Posted on: March 06, 2017

Last week ended with a lineup of Federal Reserve speakers, the last communications ahead of the blackout period before the March rate decision next week. If you were looking for signs in the tea leaves, Yellen did nothing to dissuade participants that they would not be hiking in March. The market is currently pricing in a 94% chance that the Fed hikes next week. USDCAD spent most of the session above 1.34 before fading into the close.

Over the weekend, the French elections took the headlines again with Juppe deciding not to replace Fillon, shifting votes away from the conservative party and potentially toward the far right. The EUR sold off on the news ahead of CPI data this week and the ECB rate decision. For North American data, later this morning we have Factory and Durable Goods orders out of the US, but the key data points this week will be the Trade Balance tomorrow and Employment numbers in both the US and Canada on Friday.

For those watching USDCAD, we currently are resting just below 1.34. With the Fed blackout period limiting Central Bank speak, the focus this week will be on the data, while not discounting any policy decisions and political risk that seem to be articulated early in the morning in 140 characters or less. The next levels of resistance to watch are the 1.3450/60 level ahead of the double top around 1.3600. If you need to buy USD, it may be prudent to put some orders in down below while protecting yourself with stop losses up above.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3372 – 1.3437
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3377 – 1.3407
  • London Overnight Range 1.3372 – 1.3415


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