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Event risk headlines upcoming week

Posted on: March 13, 2017

The calm before the storm certainly would be a good description of the currency markets this morning, with ranges tight as participants try and sort out what the trifecta of Central Bank decisions will mean for markets. The Federal Reserve (Wednesday), the Bank of Japan (Wednesday/Thursday overnight) and the Bank of England (Thursday) all making rate decisions this week. With a Fed hike baked in, the focus will be on the language of the statement. If GDP forecasts are raised, we could see the dot plots which show how many hikes are expected also raised. In Japan and England rates are expected to remain unchanged, with the language of the statements especially around inflation the focus of the market.

For those watching USDCAD, a battle between strong Canadian economic data and USD strength combined with oil weakness continues to rage. The strong Canadian employment report combined with some USD consolidation has USDCAD grinding away in the 1.3400s. Expectations for today and tomorrow to be reasonably quiet ahead of CPI/Retail Sales/Fed Announcement on Wednesday are fair assumptions, but you know what they say about assuming. Initial resistance comes in around 1.3480 while support sits around 1.3420.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3422 – 1.3514
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3439– 1.3476
  • London Overnight Range 1.3444 – 1.3468

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