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Slick oil prices send Canadian dollar slip sliding away

Posted on: March 14, 2017

The week in currency markets started out with an uneventful session yesterday, as participants watched tight ranges play out in thrilling fashion. USDCAD grinded away in a 40-point range with nothing to spark a move in either direction. With so much risk ahead later this week, positioning is light.

Overnight we got some news, as rumors of the British Parliament giving Teresa May permission to start the Brexit process were correct, causing GBP to sell off. Poor Chinese retail sales weighed on AUD, helping to weave the bullish USD narrative again. Feeling left out, OPEC decided to return to the spotlight this morning as Saudi Arabia announced it had reversed some of the production cuts it made the previous months, sending oil tumbling back to a $47 handle and ignited renewed USD buying against commodity currencies.

For those watching USDCAD, OPEC continues to push oil prices around, dragging the currency pair along for the ride. The supply problem has not changed, with US shale quick to fill any void created by OPEC cuts as prices rise, capping rallies. We are stalling ahead of 1.3500 this morning as tomorrow brings significant data (CPI, Retail Sales) and event risk (Fed Announcement). We have broken through initial resistance around 1.3480 with the next significant level up around 1.3530/40, while support sits around 1.3420.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3431 – 1.3469
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3439– 1.3457
  • London Overnight Range 1.3443 – 1.3494


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