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G20 proves uneventful, UK announces Brexit intentions

Posted on: March 20, 2017

Another sleepy start to the trading week so far as participants return to the desks from the weekend without much to report. News out of the G20 has been light so far, with the US emphasizing “fair” trade while Germany and Japan defend free trade. This morning a spokesperson for Teresa May announced they would be looking to officially trigger Brexit on March 29th. Looking ahead this week, in the US we have Durable Goods and Housing data later this week while in Canada we have Retail Sales tomorrow and the main event, CPI data, on Friday. We also should receive the details of the Canadian Federal Budget on Wednesday, although that should not impact the market much.

For those watching USDCAD, crude oil weakness continues to damper any gains from a neutral Fed announcement. The CFTC data showed that crude oil contracts saw the largest decline in “long” contracts since 2006 as any OPEC cuts are quickly filled by other sources. While we saw large corrections in EURUSD/USDJPY/GBPUSD, after the initial drop to 1.3300 we have managed to hold on to that handle in USDCAD for now. Lots of Fed speak out of the US this week, we will see if they give any indication that June will be the next hike.

For those with USD to sell, look for protection at 1.3300 while eyeing a break to the topside through 1.3380. For those looking to purchase USD, look to purchase USD below 1.3300 if Canadian data is strong or the Fed speeches are dovish while protecting yourself up above.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3304 – 1.3377
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3312– 1.3355
  • London Overnight Range 1.3304 – 1.3371

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