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Canadian retail sales stronger than expected

Posted on: March 21, 2017

After awhile you run out of descriptions for watching grass grow, so we will not spend much time recapping what happened (spoiler alert: not much) yesterday. During North American hours USDCAD was confined to about a 30-point range as participants awaited a catalyst to cause it to break out one way or another. Overnight we had a bit of action, as FBI Director Comey confirmed the investigation into Trump’s Russian ties. There was also a debate for the upcoming French election, with Macron seen as the victor which helped the EUR and added to broad USD weakness in the Asian session. EURUSD has broken back above 1.08 with participants eyeing the upcoming 200-day moving average at 1.0891 as a sticky level. GBPUSD is also trading higher this morning as CPI came in higher than expected, with GBPUSD fading ahead of 1.2500.

For those watching USDCAD, overnight CAD benefitted from broad USD weakness against much of the G10. This morning Canadian Retail Sales data is helping to compound the move, rising 2.2% compared to expectations of 1.5%. Even not considering autos, a volatile category, we saw a gain of 1.7% compared to expectations of 1.3%. The next level to watch is the post FOMC low of 1.3277, a break of this should cause the pair to test lower. On the topside, the first key level remains 1.3380 which has not been seen since Wednesday. Look for the CAD to now move conversely with how USD and crude oil move until Canadian CPI numbers on Friday.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3339 – 1.3373
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3324– 1.3365
  • London Overnight Range 1.3283 – 1.3357

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