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USDCAD remains range bound ahead of employment numbers

Posted on: April 03, 2017

The USD is mixed against crosses to start the week this morning, gaining ground against AUD/NZD after poor retail sales in Australia and weak PMI numbers across Japan and Korea caused selling pressure. Cable is also selling as the UK PMI missed expectations, while the Scandies especially SEK are stronger as their PMIs came in better than expected. USDCAD bumped up against Friday’s overnight high of 1.3366 this morning before coming off a bit.

Looking ahead on the calendar, employment numbers in Canada and the US on Friday will be the main event, with factory orders, durable goods and ADP numbers serving as the warmup. Later this morning we get PMI out of Canada as well as the business outlook, which should provide some insight into the Bank of Canada meeting next week.

For those watching USDCAD, we are still struggling to maintain any downward momentum below 1.3300, as demand remains strong. A strong employment number on Friday may be the catalyst to drive us through that level, while a weak print could send the pair rocketing back towards 1.3500. I think the weather in Alberta in April is easier to forecast than Canadian employment numbers, but for those curious the Bloomberg survey is showing a gain of around 6k. The 100-day moving average sits at 1.3292 and has provided strong support for the time being. Until we receive any change in perspective through data or market comments, USD sellers should sell in to rallies toward 1.3400 and USD buyers should buy dips below 1.3300.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3285 – 1.3350
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3300– 1.3328
  • London Overnight Range 1.3322 – 1.3362

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