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Macron increases lead on Le Pen in French polls

Posted on: April 20, 2017

Yesterday USDCAD kept chugging along, ending the New York session around 1.3485. After stalling into resistance around 1.3450, a crude inventory report that was not bullish was all it needed to punch through 1.3450 as falling crude put downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar.

Overnight we saw Macron increase his lead in the French polls over Le Pen, which caused EUR to catch a bid. With so much uncertainty heading into the 1st round of the election this weekend, participants are reducing short positions and the EUR is squeezing higher. This morning data out of the US was below expectations, as initial claims came in higher than expected while the Philly Fed number underwhelmed.

For those watching USDCAD, we have seen a nice move higher here but have run into significant offers just ahead of 1.3500. Oil has its worst day in a month on rumors of production increases which weighed on CAD. With nothing on the economic calendar today, expect CAD to move in response to oil and macro headlines until the CPI print first thing tomorrow morning. A break above 1.3500 could open up another run at 1.36, but unless CPI disappoints or oil continues to sell off I think it’s a move to fade in the short term. Bids sliding in around the pivot at 1.3450 and again around 1.3380.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3429 – 1.3491
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3463– 1.3486
  • London Overnight Range 1.3463 – 1.3495


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