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Macron and Le Pen move on in French election

Posted on: April 24, 2017

Lively weekend in currency news, with the first round of the French election happening yesterday. The meteoric rise of the centre leaning candidate Macron continued, as he pulled in the most votes to move through to the second round. Joining him in the second round as predicted is far-right candidate Marine Le Pen who achieved the second most votes. Pollsters are predicting a large win for Macron in the second round which caused the EURUSD to gap higher when Asia opened before fading a little bit. Are these the same pollsters that predicted a Clinton blowout and that Brexit was a pipe dream? Only time will tell as the second round goes in early May.

Looking ahead this week it is a busy economic calendar in both the US and Canada, with duel GDP numbers on Friday. Before that though, we are expecting a big announcement from Trump on Wednesday related to tax reform. However, officials are walking back that claim saying the tax cuts will mostly likely be temporary measures until they can formally overhaul the tax code. We also have the ECB meeting on Thursday which is still expected to focus on slack in inflation despite recent positives related to the French election. Oil continues to grind lower, limiting CAD gains against crosses.

For those watching USDCAD, CAD is starting the week stronger as the USD is selling against most of the G10. Oil is managing to hold on to its $49 handle for now, although fundamentals are not constructive. Canada will be watching to see if Trump’s tax announcement on Wednesday contains a border-tax adjustment which would be bearish for CAD and MXN. Still have resistance around 1.3535 with support coming in around 1.3420 and again at 1.3380.

  • Friday’s NA Range 1.3461 – 1.3524
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3463– 1.3500
  • London Overnight Range 1.3411 – 1.3487

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