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Macron wins French election.

Posted on: May 08, 2017

Macron decisively wins the French election last night with 66% of the vote vs Le Pen’s 34%. May 15 will see Macron be named as prime minister for France. The Euro seems to have dodged a major bullet for the time being.

It was a classic case of buy the rumor, sell the fact as EURUSD popped up to 1.1040 briefly but sellers immediately came in as Macron’s win was expected by the majority. The SP500 head faked above the all time high at 2400 to reach 2401 momentarily with the risk-on sentiment, but it is trading back below at the time being.

USDCAD sold off hard on Friday from a high from a high of 1.3793 in the overnight to reach a low of 1.3643 as the WTI had a major reversal, bouncing back from a low of 43.76 to close the session at 46.30. USDCAD rebounded overnight along with the US Treasury yields as the French election is out of the way and one less thing for the Fed to worry about on their path to hiking the interest rate for the rest of the year. The range for the short term should be 1.3640/3790. My bias is higher still with the divergence in monetary policy, the weak oil price and the increasingly concern on the Canadian’s housing market. Target is 1.4100/4300 area but will have to rethink if it closes below 1.3590.

  • Previous Day’s NA Range 1.3643 - 1.3786
  • Asia overnight range 1.3644 – 1.3675
  • London overnight range 1.3646 - 1.3697

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