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Polls tighten ahead of UK election

Posted on: June 05, 2017

We are coming down to the wire for the UK election and if some of the pollsters are to be believed the Labor Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, has made up significant ground. Teresa May has come under fire for her time as Home Secretary as the UK was the site of another terrorist attack over the weekend and her apparent disinterest (or unflappable confidence) in being re-elected by skipping debates.

Looking ahead this week, event risk is certainly the name of the game across the pond between the UK election and the ECB on June 8th. EUR longs have been growing as participants bet on the ECB upgrading their macro outlook, however we could see shorts come in classic buy the rumor sell the fact as Draghi tries to cap optimism. We also have testimony from former FBI Director Comey scheduled for this week on the Michael Flynn investigation which may put renewed pressure on the Trump trade. On the data front, overnight a strong Chinese PMI reading is helping AUD gain strength, while in the US we get Factory Orders and Durable Goods numbers later this morning.

For those watching USDCAD, overnight we had a number of countries in the Middle East announce they were severing ties with Qatar for allegedly funding terrorism which caused oil to catch a momentary bid and CAD to gain some strength. We are back below $48 for WTI as North America returns to work. CAD is not exempt from event risk this week, with the BoC Financial System Review on Thursday and employment numbers on Friday. 1.3540/50 continues to provide near term resistance while initial support comes in around 1.3450/60.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3481 – 1.3542
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3473– 1.3501
  • London Overnight Range 1.3462– 1.3493

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