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USD mixed ahead of super Thursday

Posted on: June 07, 2017

The DXY Index made fresh lows yesterday as the USD continued to trade heavy against many of its G10 counterparts. 96.50 support is holding for the moment as the benefits of US tax cuts and infrastructure spending is baked in and now needs to come to fruition or we may see a further unravelling. USDCAD chopped around in a 50 pip range as oil held support just below $47. Ranges were tight again as participants are vigilant ahead of the major risk events tomorrow.

Overnight the Euro sold off as participants are worried that the ECB will downgrade its inflation forecast. If the ECB underwhelms hawkish expectations tomorrow expect to see a bit of a run lower as participants cut longs and take profits off the table. Positive GDP in Australia saw AUD pick up gains against the crosses and AUDUSD pushed through the 200 day moving average with ease. In the UK, Teresa May finally caught a bit of a break as Halifax House Prices came in better than expected. The wait is almost over as Super Thursday arrives tomorrow.

For those watching USDCAD, we have managed to make fresh lows each of the past three days as the slow grind lower continues. Oil has stabilized for the moment, but watch EIA numbers today to see if the large gasoline build reported by the API is confirmed by the EIA, as that could spark another wave of selling. We look to the major risk events tomorrow and employment data to provide some direction as the 1.3400/1.3520 range feels stale. Estimates for the Canadian job numbers, as scientific as spinning the Wheel of Fortune wheel, are for a gain of 15k jobs. For today unless we see a bad oil inventory number I think USDCAD continues to grind lower with 1.3420/30 the initial support and again at 1.3380/90.

  • Yesterday’s NA Range 1.3437 – 1.3487
  • Asia Overnight Range 1.3436– 1.3461
  • London Overnight Range 1.3427– 1.3462


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