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Eyes on CAD for CPI & retail sales this week

Posted on: June 19, 2017

Last week had its fair share of disappointing economic data, starting with weakness in US inflation, consumer confidence, and housing and manufacturing. The Fed removed the expected amount of policy stimulus on the basis that inflation and the overall U.S economy will improve on a go-forward.

This week will be quieter on the central bank and economic data front with the exception of the Kiwi’s announcing its monetary decision on Wednesday – which there are expected to maintain rates at +1.75%. At home, participants will look out for May CPI and April Canadian Retail Sales. With USD/CAD currently trading at 1.3243, data will be closely watched to see if it aligns with the hawkish sentiment from the BoC. This morning, we received comments from Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross stating that Canada and Mexico were no currency manipulators. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Fed BNY President William Dudley touched on their view of the aggregate health of the U.S economy. Dudley suggested that the Fed should remain on track for the planned rate hikes this year, despite the missed expectations from inflation data. USD/CAD rallied as a result and reached to session highs against the yen and euro.

GBP/USD (1.2771) is stronger across the board as the BoE was another central bank that succumbed to a hawkish sentiment. The BoE’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) are expected to discuss ending the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) at a meeting this week. Market participants are indicating that this could make way for a hike in rates much sooner than had previously been priced in.

  • Friday’s NA Range: 1.3210 – 1.3262
  • Asia Range: 1.3210 – 1.3232
  • London Range: 1.3220 – 1.3252

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