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USD weaker on oil, EUR bid on favourable outlook

Posted on: June 27, 2017

Broad USD weakness is the name of the game this morning as oil finds a bit of a bid. WTI is testing $44 dollars this morning which is putting downward pressure on USDCAD ahead of the panel discussion involving Poloz tomorrow. The first comments from Sintra have the Euro gaining strength as ECB President Mario Draghi emphasized that deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary forces and that policy will become less accommodative as the recovery continues to proceed towards the level of normalization. GBP was also bid this morning as comments from Bank of England’s Mark Carney suggests additional capital requirements for banks, which have sparked buying interest.

Other than Consumer Confidence and Case Shiller’s Home Price Index in the US, today is pretty bare on the data front. The focus will be Yellen’s speech on global economic issues at 11am Alberta time. Technically, support for USDCAD comes in at 1.3165 with resistance around 1.3340/50, we will see if the talks from Poloz causes a breakout in either direction. Just released, Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have missed market consensus across the board. Home sales and permits have been and continue to be an accurate indicator and catalyst for US consumer confidence.

The BoJ continues to favor bond buying, albeit, purchases have been slower since the introduction of the yield-curve control in September 2016. Participants are largely expecting the BoJ to remain accommodative with monetary policy in the near-to-medium term, with an expected change around April 2018, which signals the end of the governing term for Kuroda. The BoJ’s stimulus program has had little success in encouraging businesses and households to invest disposable incomes. Stagnant wages, an aging population and a tight labor market still present real problems for the economy in achieving the crowned inflation target of 2%.

  • Yesterdays NA Range 1.3212 – 1.3254
  • Asia 1.3242 – 1.3261
  • London 1.3202 – 1.3250


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