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CAD GDP meets expectations, US consumer softens

Posted on: June 30, 2017

Canadian GDP for April came out right on the screws this morning (+0.2%) in one of the last big prints before the July Bank of Canada meeting. While not the massive beat that those in the July hike camp had hoped for, it was what the market expected right down to the drag in the oil industry due to an upgrader outage that was offset by a strong month in mining, and much of the service sector. Later this morning the Q2 Business Outlook will be released ahead of the long weekend.

In the US, May was not a particularly strong month for the average consumer. Personal Income came in better than expected (0.4% versus 0.3%) and Personal Spending came in as advertised (0.1%), but we saw a slight miss in the PCE numbers, with only the core rate being up 0.1% for a Y/Y rate of 1.4%. This marks the third decline in a row for the yearly rate.

With USDCAD wobbling right on key support after testing lower ahead of the GDP, the price action could be very choppy especially considering the upcoming long weekend. Liquidity will likely not last long past the London close. The 1.3000 barriers fell with relative ease yesterday, we will see if the barriers around and below 1.2950 are the next victims today.

Oil prices traded in the green for a seventh straight session, posting the longest bull-run since April. Despite the uptick, participants have cut their 2017 forecasts for crude, with Reuters oil price poll showing a $2 cut for average Brent and WTI prices. The pessimism comes from the prospect of continued strength in U.S. production which would discount OPEC’s efforts to gradually cut output.

Have a great long weekend!

  • Yesterday’s NA: 1.2987 – 1.3039
  • Asia: 1.2972 – 1.3012
  • London: 1.2948 – 1.3000


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