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Canada & US employment beats expectations

Posted on: July 07, 2017

Today is double Non-Farm day in Canada and the US, and both countries saw the headline print beat expectations. Starting close to home, Canada added 45.3k jobs compared to expectations of +10k. A majority of the gains came from part-time employment, and we also saw the unemployment rate drop a tick to 6.5% despite the participation rate increasing to 65.9 from 65.8.

South of the border, the US added 222k jobs in June compared to expectations of +178k with a nice upward revision to May’s numbers as well. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%, but the participation rate increased as well. If there was one sour note from the US jobs report it would be that hourly earnings missed expectations again.

With the July hike 92% priced in as of this morning, the thing to watch next week will be the language from the Bank of Canada to see what – if any forward guidance they give. There are 55 bps (2+ hikes) priced in through the December meetings with the market expecting a decent chance that we see a second hike in October, although September is gaining steam as well.

At market open, crude oil prices are down nearly 2% after recent data showed US production rose last week, coupled with OPEC exports at a 2017 high. Geopolitical risk is providing some support for precious metals such as gold at 1,216.20 an ounce. However, continued dollar strength is expected to weigh in on metals.

  • Yesterday NA 1.2923 – 1.2979
  • Asia 1.2974 – 1.2994
  • London 1.2888 – 1.2993

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