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Markets shift focus to ECB on Thursday

Posted on: July 17, 2017

Not much action overnight as a light economic calendar and event risk later in the week should keep action largely muted today, especially in USDCAD. After gaining ground on Friday thanks to a poor CPI print, CAD has taken a breather in its ascent. June has marked the fourth month in a row of weaker than expected core CPI, bringing the YoY rate to 1.7% versus 2.3% in February. These data misses should temper the markets certainty for another Fed rate hike this year.

Looking ahead, Friday represents a big day for CAD this week with CPI and Retail Sales. Governor Poloz and the Bank of Canada have stressed that inflation is coming, but the proof will be in the print. A strong CPI reading likely opens up a test of 1.2460 while if CPI misses expectations USDCAD could snap back higher.

Elsewhere, lots of event risk later in the week with both the ECB and Bank of Japan rate decisions. No changes to rates are expected, the focus will once again be on the language of the statement. Data from China shows that it is maintaining positive economic momentum with strong Q2 GDP, retail sales and industrial output numbers. This comes after the fact that policy makers have tried to curb excessive borrowing and market speculation which has led to a drop in money supply growth and spurred financial deleveraging. President Xi has stated that the PBOC will implement a stronger monetary policy program while taking a stronger stance on macro prudential policy.

  • Friday's NA 1.2644 - 1.2735
  • Asia 1.2640 - 1.2669
  • London 1.2649 - 1.2673

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