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Risk back on as North Korea eases up on rhetoric

Posted on: August 15, 2017

Big day for data this morning. US Retail sales smashed expectations, printing 0.6% compared to expectations of 0.3% while ex-autos also beat expectations. Empire Manufacturing was also above expectations in a solid morning for US data. USDCAD looks like it could be squeezed up to 1.2940/50, especially if Canadian CPI disappoints on Friday. Support is starting to fill in around 1.2700. In the interim, watch out for headline trading around the NAFTA negotiations that start tomorrow. The US will be looking to score political points so the rhetoric may be very harsh.

Across the pond, the UK did not have the same luck with their data, as CPI missed expectations slightly causing GBP to sell against the crosses. A run of poor data is making it tough for the hawks with the BoE to stay on message. The risk-on trade has meant USDJPY has quickly regained a 110-handle. The EUR is selling off this morning on disappointing data out of Germany. We hear from Draghi at Jackson Hole next week and the market is expecting a hawkish tilt, so the risks are definitely to the downside.

  • Yesterday's NA 1.2667 - 1.2731
  • Asia 1.2719 - 1.2740
  • London 1.2725 - 1.2778

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