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NAFTA talks begin, CAD edges higher on US housing miss

Posted on: August 16, 2017

After enjoying a nice pop due to strong retail sales numbers south of the border, USDCAD faded into the close as 1.2780 kept a lid on the upside momentarily. Yesterday, API crude numbers showed a bigger draw than expected, we will be watching the EIA numbers later this morning to see if that is confirmed. Large draws in crude and product stocks should be bullish for CAD.

This morning housing data out of the US disappointed, with Housing Starts and Building Permits both undershooting expectations. This afternoon we get the FOMC minutes from the July meeting. Currently there is less than a 3% chance for a rate hike before December thanks to modest inflation readings as the market expects the Fed to start its 4.2 trillion balance sheet normalization in the short term. The market is expecting September will be the start date. Once the reductions start, the greenback may be poised to make gains due to the increased investor confidence in the US economy.

On the crosses, JPY continues to give back ground as geopolitical tensions give way to US domestic tensions. USDJPY squeezing higher towards a 111-handle this morning ahead of trade balance numbers this evening. The EUR is also sliding as rumors of Draghi not delivering any new policies at his Jackson Hole address next week are being interpreted as dovish by a market too anxious to wait for the ECB meeting a couple weeks later.

 

  • Yesterday's NA: 1.2737 - 1.2778
  • Asia: 1.2747 - 1.2770
  • London: 1.2712 - 1.2755

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