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Loonie boosted after Fed minutes

Posted on: August 17, 2017

The USD really hit the skids between the London and New York close yesterday, with USDCAD stumbling comfortably through 1.2700 after failing to break again 1.2780 yesterday. We even took a peak below 1.2600 overnight. The move caught the market by surprise, as the FOMC minutes were not that dovish but the increased political uncertainty in the US and summer trading liquidity may have exacerbated the move. Regardless of when the Fed raises rates next, I suspect the move to be very gradual and less enthusiastic, in contrast to the BoC. Not much to talk about on the data front this morning. The recent trade reports ensured that the Canadian Manufacturing Sales miss was well telegraphed, with all eyes in Canada now zeroing in on Canadian CPI tomorrow morning. For USDCAD, the next big support comes in around 1.2550/60 with the previously mentioned 1.2780 remaining resistance.

Elsewhere, ECB minutes came out as dovish as remarks were made about concerns about the EUR overshooting. The minutes also addressed the fact that policy makers were increasingly aware of the risk that a higher euro could threaten the ECB's efforts to achieve higher inflation levels, due to weaker export competitiveness. No real information on the timing and future of QE so not much to go on. EURUSD has taken another peak below 1.1700 this morning while EURCAD took a run towards 1.4700 before giving back some gains.

  • Yesterday's NA 1.2614 - 1.2739
  • Asia 1.2601 - 1.2634
  • London 1.2589 - 1.2647

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