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Markets sideways as central bankers gather in Jackson Hole

Posted on: August 24, 2017

Another rally in USDCAD fizzled ahead of 1.2600 yesterday, with broad USD weakness and a reasonably strong EIA crude inventory report saw CAD regain some strength. Focus in the US is now shifting towards the debt ceiling and a potential government shutdown as the GOP tries to capitalize on any leverage it can to pass something that counts as legislation. After failing a couple of times overnight, USDCAD broke below the low from Tuesday’s strong Canadian Retail Sales print. Likely see some support around 1.2500, with the major support coming in around 1.2410/20. On the top side initial resistance remains in a band around 1.2600 as that seems to be where rallies go to die this week.

Today marks the beginning of the Central Banker symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. There are several speakers on the agenda and with the light liquidity of summer trading watch out for headline risk. Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen are both expected to speak on Friday. While a somewhat stale message is expected from Draghi, it will be interesting to see what Yellen says. Despite generally strong data, US inflation has staged a bit of a disappearing act recently, and the market is only pricing in a 37% chance of another hike before the end of the year. Still a long time to go before December but certainly interesting to see the US sit on the fence as Europe talks about reducing QE and other members of the G10 like Canada look for additional rate hikes.

  • Yesterday's NA 1.2541 - 1.2596
  • Asia 1.2537 - 1.2555
  • London 1.2520 - 1.2561

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