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Loonie remains resilient after stronger US inflation data

Posted on: September 14, 2017

This morning US CPI came in better than expected, gaining 0.4% MoM compared to expectations of 0.3%. YoY CPI was also up a tick at 1.9% compared to estimates of 1.8%. A fairly solid report across the board especially in regards to core inflation, this certainly keeps a December rate hike in the US on the table for now. USDCAD tested towards 1.2240 before retracing most of the gains at the time of writing.

On the Canadian front, housing conditions in Vancouver contributed by driving home prices up by 2% from June to July. Toronto reported no change in new home prices for the second month in a row, with the exception of Hamilton and London. Census metropolitan areas in Alberta and Saskatchewan recorded three of the four YoY declines.

USD continues to grind higher against many of its G10 counterparts, as yields have bounced off the mat. After holding the line at 2% we have rallied back towards 2.20%. December is currently about 50% priced in after this mornings CPI print.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England voted 7-2 to leave interest rates unchanged. This initially sparked GBP selling, but we saw a sharp bounce after the minutes from the BoE indicated the majority sees the scope for stimulus reduction and the fact that the market is still underpricing future rate increases. Cable is making new YTD highs this morning, the best performer in the G10. The next key resistance point is 1.35, a break past this point would signal a move back to price levels that were seen prior to the Brexit vote.

  • Yesterday's NA 1.2131 - 1.2220
  • Asia 1.2161 - 1.2188
  • London 1.2169 - 1.2239

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