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FOMC week starting off with marginally stronger USD

Posted on: September 18, 2017

Focus this week is on the FOMC Wednesday, Bank of Japan on Thursday and Canadian CPI data on Friday. USD is slightly stronger as the market seems to be taking profit on their USD shorts as higher US CPI data last week has increased the chance of the Fed tightening further. The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a hike by the end of a year from the Fed, moderately higher than the 35% a week ago.

GBPUSD trimmed 50bps after last week’s 400bp+ gain. The recent surge was driven by renewed hawking sentiment from the Bank of England amid the strongest inflation data since 2013. As a result, the chance of a hike by the end of the year has jumped substantially from 27% last week to 78% now.

So now the Bank of England seem to be second central bank after the Bank of Canada to tighten its monetary policy. There was rumor this morning that Bank of Australia might be tightening as well. Could this be the next trend as other central banks try to catch up to the Fed? This will be interesting as it unfolds in the next few months.

  • Previous Day’s NA Range 1.2122 - 1.2218
  • Overnight range 1.2172 - 1.2213


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