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German election results weigh on Euro

Posted on: September 25, 2017

Despite the flurry of headlines it was a relatively quiet weekend in currency markets with Euro weakness being the major story. Gains by the far-right against Merkel’s party in the German election means there may have to be some messy coalition talks, weighing on the Euro. 1.1820/40 is holding for now, but a break below that could be the impetus for a bigger correction. CAD has gained some strength thanks to a nice run in oil this morning as WTI breaks back above $51 USD/bbl. Despite a downgrade from Moody’s late on Friday, GBP has largely shaken it off.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, this is a big week for CAD. Poloz is speaking on Wednesday and if he uses the opportunity to be cautious and stress data dependency we could see a similar move to after Deputy Governor Lane’s speech last week into the important resistance area of 1.2440/50. Expect a lot of selling at these levels based on the charts. Down below, 1.2260 is the first major support. Canadian GDP numbers are also released on Friday which will be a market mover. After very good prints the previous two months can we see a third beat?

Elsewhere, we hear from Draghi later this morning and US Fed members Evans and Kashkari later today. Across the Pond in Japan it is likely that Prime Minister Abe will call a snap election to try and capitalize on favorable polls. Janet Yellen speaks tomorrow and on Thursday we get USD GDP numbers. No shortage of event risk and data that could make for a very interesting week!

  • Friday's NA 1.2256 - 1.2351
  • Asia 1.2324 - 1.2350
  • London 1.2313 - 1.2348


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