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CAD and MXN stumble as US talks tough on NAFTA

Posted on: October 16, 2017

Fairly eventful weekend with lots of Central Bank chatter and NAFTA headlines to digest. US Fed Chair Janet Yellen continues to make the pitch that soft inflation prints like the one we saw on Friday are transitory. I guess if you keep saying that over a long enough time horizon you have a better chance of being right? Looking at USDCAD, the bigger driver of CAD weakness is the American’s tough talk on NAFTA now that they are digging into the real issues, with the Sunset clause demanded by the US a prime example.

Looking at the charts this morning USDCAD resistance will come in around 1.2590/1.2600 ahead of the key 1.2660 level. We continue to play in the 1.2430 – 1.2600 range searching for a catalyst for a breakout in either direction. Later this morning we get the Q3 Canadian Business Outlook survey which will be watched closely.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the main event north of the border will be Canadian CPI and Retail Sales on Friday morning. With Poloz insisting that the Bank of Canada is now back to data dependency we look for another strong print to help forecast the next hike. Currently there are two more hikes by the BoC priced in by July of 2018, a date that continues to drift back from early forecasts of Spring 2018.

  • Friday's NA 1.2453 - 1.2520
  • Asia 1.2473 - 1.2490
  • London 1.2470 - 1.2545

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