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Currency: Thursday, April 21

Posted on: April 21, 2016

It’s a day of central bank decisions today. The Riksbank kept policy rates unchanged at -0.5% and extended QE by 45bn. Despite the additional QE, SEK defies the central bank decision and is outperforming most currencies. The only explanation I can think of is the market think that the Riksbank is out of ammunition after this. ECB also kept the rate unchanged at 0.25%. In the following press conference, Draghi says rates will be at present or lower levels for extended time and that QE will run until at least March 2017.

USDCAD has fallen as WTI broke the major resistance of 42.50 yesterday. USDCAD reached a low of 1.2593 before consolidating around the low 1.2600 area. With positions in CAD still relatively light, I say follow the trend and sell USDCAD in the 1.2730/45 area unless oil does a major reversal and crash to the downside.

  • Previous Day’s NA Range 1.2593 - 1.2703
  • Asia overnight range 1.2632– 1.2662
  • London overnight range 1.2628 - 1.2679

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