With Prime Minister Carney resurrecting then Prime Minister Harper’s 2006 goal of making Canada an “energy superpower,” it’s notable that Alberta’s oil production continues to break seasonal records.*

The latest report from the Alberta Energy Regulator shows that oil production in the province averaged 4 million barrels per day in April—an all-time record for the month and 2% higher than the previous April.

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, average daily production over the first four months of the year was running at 4.1 million barrels compared to 3.9 in 2024.

Oil sands production accounted for 84% of total YTD production.

In terms of the disposition of the oil produced, the vast majority (87%) left the province for other provinces and countries.

Despite soft oil prices in April and May, the uncertainty and economic damage created by U.S. trade policy and more OPEC+ supply coming online, we expect the extra transportation capacity provided by the still-not-full TMX pipeline will continue to support a modest rise in Alberta’s total production this year. A key risk here is potential production disruptions from forest fires.

Natural gas production in Alberta has also been increasing with well output up by about 2% over the first four months of the year.

As with oil, we expect the increased capacity to export Canadian gas via the B.C. coast that will come online when LNG Canada’s liquified natural gas facility begins commercial operation later this year along with increased demand for gas-generated electricity from, for example, AI data centres, will support a rise in production over time.

Notwithstanding the production increases, we expect softer oil prices and general economic uncertainty to weigh on the sector’s capital spending this year.

*Oil extraction is affected by seasonal factors so it is best to make year-over-year or year-to-date comparisons rather than from one month to the next. December 2024 holds the record for Alberta’s most productive month of oil production at 4.26 million barrels per day.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The head office of the investment bank Goldman Sachs is located in New York City.

Today’s trivia question: Which member of OPEC is the cartel’s largest oil producer?